After Nashville SC's loss to FC Cincinnati last weekend, a lot of the conversation among the fanbase has been focused on Hany Mukhtar.
The highest-paid player on any club will always be a lightning rod for conversation. This is even more true when said player is a former MVP and has missed two penalties in six games. But how bad of a start has 2025 been for Mukhtar, and is this the decline or just a temporary bump in the road?
Comparing Mukhtar to years past
To properly diagnose Mukhtar’s struggles, we must first determine whether he is, in fact, struggling.
For everyone worried about Hany Mukhtar's form, he's currently averaging 0.52 goal contributions per game so far this season, better than 2020 and 2021. It hasn't been the greatest start to a season, but it's also not 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 different from normal. His numbers typically take off 10-12 matches in.
— Ben Wright (@benwright.bsky.social) 2025-03-30T17:41:07.507Z
Mukhtar is a notoriously slow starter. Even in his MVP-winning 2022 season, it took him seven games to score his first goal. Below is a 10-game rolling average of goals plus assists (G+A) and expected goals plus expected assists (xG+xA) over his Nashville career.
This graph supports the idea that Mukhtar takes some time to get started. You can see the trend line plummet at the beginning of each season. However, there has been a sharp increase for the past four seasons entering the summer months. Even last year followed this trend, despite it being Mukhtar’s worst goal production season.
Another thing this graph makes clear is that Mukhtar is a pretty consistent xG overperformer. This perhaps shouldn't be a surprise; after all, he won a league MVP award and has been one of MLS's best players over the last half-decade.
However, there's a tiny red flag at the end of 2024. It's the lowest Mukhtar has performed below his expected numbers. While it’s likely just a rough patch for him, we can't quite say that for certain. It’s possible that as he ages, he won't return to the clinical form of years past.
I think that’s unlikely. A player as talented as Mukhtar, who has proven for years he can over-perform his underlying numbers, doesn’t suddenly drop off a cliff without any major injuries. I would expect to see the same summer spike that Mukhtar typically is good for.
What’s also encouraging about this graph is the chance creation. This is the most xG+xA Mukhtar has created since the summer of 2023, before Leagues Cup, when he looked on pace for a second-consecutive MVP award. I’m not worried about Mukhtar yet, and neither should you be.
If we get to the summer and he’s still underperforming his xG, then we can have a different conversation. But as of now, around 0.5 G+A per 90 minutes played is much closer to what we saw in 2021 and 2022 than his disappointing season in 2024.
Woes from the penalty spot
The most glaring weakness in Mukhtar’s game right now is the penalties. And there’s no hiding from this one. As per my colleague Ben Wright, Mukhtar has missed four of his last penalty kicks.
This isn’t just a recent occurrence; Mukhtar has never been particularly convincing from the spot. Of the 80 players who have taken 10 or more penalties in MLS, he has the seventh-lowest scoring rate at just 70%. It’s not good enough.
The worst Penalty performance in a season was Maxi Morales scoring 4/8 in 2019
— Nashville SC Stats (@NSC_Stats) March 30, 2025
There are 46 seasons where a player took 3+ penalties and missed 2+
7 players are on that list twice... Including Hany
80 players have taken 10+ PKs in MLS. Hany has the 7th lowest scoring % at 70% https://t.co/P6UkBSDcIu
His misses this season have been more unlucky than a lack of talent. Look no further than one of my favorite statistics, post-shot expected goal. According to FBRef, “post-shot xG is calculated after the shot has been taken, once it is known that the shot is on target, taking into account the quality of the shot.”
This statistic is useful for assessing goalkeepers and the quality of penalty shots. Mukhtar’s penalty against the Portland Timbers had a PSxG of 0.8, while his penalty against Cincy had a PSxG of 0.92. Considering shot quality and placement, FBRef's model estimated just a 1.6% chance of him missing both penalties.
In simpler terms, he was extremely unlucky both times, and it was excellent goalkeeping both times. By contrast, Sam Surridge’s penalty against the Timbers was very poor and generated a PSxG of only 0.6. Basically, if the keeper dove the right way, it should have been an easy save, and it was.
Unless BJ Callaghan thinks it’s a mental issue with Mukhtar – and judging from his panenka against Philadelphia I wouldn’t say it is – he should keep his job at the spot.
How do you get Mukhtar back to form?
We know Mukhtar tends to start seasons slowly, and his missed penalties this year have largely been a case of bad luck. But Nashville can still improve in certain areas to wake up their MVP and get the attack firing on all cylinders.
The reality is that this is the best supporting cast Mukhtar has ever had in attack, but outside of Surridge, none of them have proven that they can be a first- or second-choice option in MLS. Nashville still need Mukhtar to be successful in 2025. So how can Callaghan & Co. help him?
"Shot creating actions" (SCA) are moves that lead to a shot. These can include a live pass, dead pass, foul, take-on, shot, tackle, or interception. FBRef tracks the primary SCA, which happens immediately before the shot, and the secondary SCA, the move that leads to the primary SCA, like a hockey assist.
Below is a table of primary SCAs leading to a shot from Mukhtar in 2024. I’ve never been completely sold on Jacob Shaffelburg's game (we can save that for another article), but looking at the table below, it's apparent that he was a key player in unlocking Mukhtar in 2024, creating seven shots for him at 0.17 xG per shot.
That checks out. When Shaffelburg runs down the field, Mukhtar often receives his pass into the box, creating a good chance in transition. But in 2025, Shaffleburg hasn’t been able to unseat Alex Muyl for the starting job, and unfortunately, Muyl is at the wrong end of this SCA table. With 13 primary SCAs, he was the leading creator for Mukhtar in 2024, but those 13 chances didn’t amount to very much.
I’ve also pulled the Primary SCA for Mukhtar in 2025, and we can see a similar, unfortunate trend developing. Muyl creates a boatload of chances for Mukhtar, but not much comes from it. Wonderboy Ahmed Qasem continues to impress, and his back-post cross to Mukhtar on Saturday against FC Cincinnati deserved a goal.
But it’s also Mukhtar's responsibility to create opportunities for himself. In 2024, he was tied with Muyl for the most SCAs which led to his own shot. Ball carriers can earn SCAs by completing take-ons or getting fouled, which leads to a free kick that Mukhtar takes.
So far, in 2025, his’s two SCAs have been missed penalties that he followed up with shots. Missing PKs to generate a second shot is hopefully unsustainable. But with the rate Nashville is awarded PKs and missing them in 2025, who knows?
A new role in a new attack
In 2025, Mukhtar has struggled to find space to carry the ball in BJ Callaghan’s compact, overloading attack. So far, he's has attempted just over two take-ons per 90 minutes and completes them at a paltry 8.3% rate. Throughout his MLS career, he has averaged 3.22 take-ons per 90 minutes at a 45.3% success rate. There just isn’t any space for him to create shots for himself right now.
The concern here would be that Callaghan’s system doesn't make space or allow Mukhtar to take on defenders. But I don’t think that’s the case. In the final nine matches of 2024, Mukhtar averaged about 2.7 take-ons per game. It isn’t quite the counter-attacking style that he flourished in under Gary Smith, but plenty of opportunities exist.
Putting on my Tactico hat for a second, Nashville have been unbalanced in their attack. They've heavily focused on the right side, powered by Mukhtar, Qasem and Andy Najar. Pushing numbers to one side of the field creates the tight spaces and overloads that BJ wants, but it isn’t always favorable for someone like Mukhtar, who's biggest strengths are in the open field with space to run. If Nashville can unlock their left side a little more, it could create opportunities for quick switches to play Mukhtar into space and allow him to do what he does best.
The Mukhtar Panic Meter™ should remain at a passive one or two out of 10. And the good news for Nashville is they have 10 points through six games, all coming with mukhtar contributing minimally in goals and assists. He still does plenty of unheralded work in the build-up, but fans aren't content with only progressive passes or chances created.
Fans want goals, and I get that. Mukhtar wants goals more than anyone! But the goals are coming. They eventually come every year, and there's no reason to believe that 2025 won't be the same.
