Nashville are soaring after five games, and following their third consecutive victory, they've outscored opponents eight to one during that stretch. Nashville SC fans are allowing themselves to dream. But is it truly time to go full steam ahead on the hype train, or are fans setting themselves up for disappointment again?
There’s no denying Nashville have been excellent in the buildup, but they haven’t been rewarded on the xG tables. Nashville have produced only 1.1 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and 0.08 npxG per shot, placing them 18th and 26th in MLS. Their attack is sustained by their buildup play, which generates a high volume of chances. However, if the Boys in Gold are going to aim higher than the play-in game, they need to create higher-quality chances and unlock their MVP.
A potentially fraudulent attack
Nashville have been excellent in their build-up play, with a final third efficiency that ranks among the best. For every touch in the final third (outside the box), Nashville average 0.2 touches inside the box, marking the seventh-best rate in the league.
Teams in the top half of this statistic average 1.4 non-penalty expected goals per game, while teams in the bottom half average just 1.0 npxG. Among the top half teams, only three have produced fewer than 6.2 npxG this season: Nashville (5.5 npxG), St. Louis, and Houston. They’re getting the ball into dangerous areas, but that isn’t reflected in their xG production.
Another area of success for Nashville has been their play once they enter the box. Nashville average two touches in the box per entry. Among the seven teams in MLS that create less than 0.1 npxG per shot, four rank among the bottom six in penalty touches per entry. Nashville and Seattle are the only teams in the top half of this statistic below 0.1 npxG per shot.
