We're eight weeks into the 2025 MLS season, and the league is beginning to separate out into different tiers. The Vancouver Whitecaps continue their stellar and unexpected season, while Atlanta United continue to struggle.
Overall Performance Index
Our power rankings are solely created by a data-based model we've pretentiously labeled "the Overall Performance Index" (OPI). This new model includes the same factors as the prior edition (points per game, strength of schedule, goal difference and expected goal difference), while adding several other factors to give a more rounded picture. Here's how the model is calculated (click here for a more in-depth explanation):
1. Points per game – 25%
2. Goals Added – 15%
3. Form (last four matches) – 15%
4. Goal difference – 13%
5. Strength of schedule – 10%
6. Expected goal difference – 10%
7. Home and away form – 12%
Let's dive in!
Vancouver Whitecaps stay in the top spot after a 5-1 demolition of Austin FC, and their score of 36.16 is a record for this model through eight matches, going back through the 2020 MLS season. Inter Miami drop into third place in the model after a 0-0 draw with Chicago Fire, with their score dropped by almost a full point.
Nashville SC are the biggest winners this week, moving up seven places into second place with a 2-1 win over Real Salt Lake. They have the second-best expected goal and G+ differences (only behind Vancouver in both), and the underlying numbers really like how they play.
Columbus Crew are close behind. Their 2-1 win over St. Louis City SC pushes them up seven spots into fourth place. Similarly to Nashville, the model really likes their underlying numbers. Their G+ difference is fourth-best in MLS, and while their xG differential isn't quite as high in eighth, they're one of just two unbeaten teams in MLS, with only Miami keeping a similar pace over their last four matches.
Austin are the biggest losers this week, dropping seven spots after losing 5-1 to Vancouver. FC Dallas are next, dropping four spots after a 1-0 home loss to Seattle Sounders, who are at the lower-middle tier in the model. San Diego also dip, dropping three points into fifth place after a 3-2 loss against the Colorado Rapids.
Atlanta United also drop after a 1-0 loss at home to the New England Revolution. Their underlying numbers are somewhat encouraging, with both their G+ difference and xG difference in the top 10. They cannot seem to turn those into results, although they likely won't face goalkeeping performances like Aljaž Ivačič's every week.
Check back next week for another update.
