Another weekend of MLS action means another edition of our MLS Data Power Rankings. If you're unfamiliar, we use a data-based model to create these rankings and hopefully give a more holistic view of how teams are actually performing.
Overall Performance Index
Our power rankings are solely created by a data-based model we've pretentiously labeled "the Overall Performance Index" (OPI). This new model includes the same factors as the prior edition (points per game, strength of schedule, goal difference and expected goal difference), while adding several other factors to give a more rounded picture. Here's how the model is calculated (click here for a more in-depth explanation):
1. Points per game – 25%
2. Goals Added – 15%
3. Form (last four matches) – 15%
4. Goal difference – 13%
5. Strength of schedule – 10%
6. Expected goal difference – 10%
7. Home and away form – 12%
Let's dive in!
The Seattle Sounders are this week's big winners. They move up seven spots after a 3-0 win over Nashville SC, and their score increases by nearly five points. Nashville drop by five points, although their score decreases by only ~2.5.
Charlotte FC and Philadelphia Union both move into the top three after 3-0 wins. Charlotte rolled past San Diego FC at home in a dominant win, and the Union similarly cruised past Atlanta United. Atlanta drop down into 20th after the loss, while San Diego slide out of the top 10.
Even after a scoreless draw with St. Louis City, the Vancouver Whitecaps maintain the top spot. Their score gets a marginal 0.18 increase ahead of their Concacaf Champions Cup semifinal.
One quirk of the model is that the San Jose Earthquakes actually move up a spot after their 5-3 loss to Sporting KC. Despite conceding five goals and losing, the 'Quakes dominated the expected goals battle, creating a whopping 4.85 to Sporting's 1.23. That's the sixth-highest xG total in American Soccer Analysis's database going back through the 2013, and it's the biggest xG total that resulted in a loss. This may be an instance where the model weights underlying numbers to heavily, but it's also such an extreme outlier of a performance that it's not likely to be repeated.
Check back next week for another update.
