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Analysis: The number's behind Nashville's first loss of 2025

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Nashville SC lost their first match of 2025 on Saturday, falling 2-0 to the New York Red Bulls at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

2 progressive actions from Corcoran and Meyer

Famed Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger once said that "you pay for the experience of youth players with points."

An elite Red Bulls pressing side exploited Nashville's young midfield pairing. NSC struggled to transition the ball out of their defensive third, largely due to just two progressive actions (including passes and carries) from Meyer and Corcoran. Most of Nashville's first 45 minutes were spent retreating in their own half until they lost possession or played long balls. The defense faced immense pressure throughout the half, resulting in Meyer’s turnover leading to the first goal, while a miscommunication between Zimmerman and Willis caused the second.

Under BJ Callaghan, Nashville have aimed to be a ball-controlling team, but the location of that control matters. Forty-five percent of their touches against the Red Bulls took place in their own defensive third. In contrast, compared to other high-possession teams like the Columbus Crew, LAFC, CF Montreal or San Diego - only 32% of touches from that four-team group occurred in the defensive third. That’s not how to create chances. Nashville were merely hanging on.

Didn't get to watch Nashville SC live last night, but after watching today it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected it to be. Inexperienced center midfield was overrun by RBNY's press, but settled eventually. Once Tagseth was moved centrally and Qasem came on, Nashville looked significantly better.

Ben Wright (@benwright.bsky.social) 2025-03-03T00:17:16.745Z

We’ve all heard this story from Nashville before, but I don’t think it’s just more of the same. Once Patrick Yazbek came on, NSC’s possession improved significantly. In just 30 minutes of game time, Yazbek matched Corcoran and Meyer’s progressive actions with two of his own. His five passes into the final third were second-best on the night for NSC. Gastón Brugman will heal up, and so will Bryan Acosta. Yazbek should return to the starting lineup next weekend, too.

This game was tough for Nashville, but there were still some bright spots.

.09 xAG per Key Pass

According to FBRef.com, a key pass is defined as "a pass that leads to a shot."

"Expected assists aenerated" (xAG) is the expected goals (xG) generated from the shot following a key pass. Two games is certainly not a sufficient sample size to make any sweeping judgments, but Nashville are really struggling to create quality chances. Below is a table of all key passes for NSC and the xAG produced this year.

A table with numbers and letters

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Hany Mukhtar and Eddi Tagseth average over two key passes per 90 minutes, which would place them in an elite tier in MLS. However, key passes that don't produce xAG aren’t a sign of creative passes; they simply indicate an aggressive shooter.

Additionally, there’s more evidence that NSC is a hyper-aggressive shooting team. They've taken 23 shots this season, with only 21.7% on target and 0.08 xG per shot, resulting in no goals scored. This is the third-lowest on-target percentage in the league, and the lowest xG per shot for teams that have taken at least 20 shots. Nashville must focus on creating better opportunities instead of settling for poor shots. 

Another issue with the table above is that NSC’s holding midfield is entirely absent. Wyatt Meyer, Matt Corcoran and Patrick Yazbek have recorded zero key passes collectively. During the first 150 minutes of the season, Nashville were completely one-dimensional, primarily attacking down the right side of the pitch. However, once Yazbek entered the game against the Red Bulls, the left side opened up a bit. To maximize their attacking potential, Nashville need to be effective from all three areas of the field. Right now, their strategy is too predictable and too simplistic.

It's not all bleak for the NSC attack. There are two players who can help solve this problem.

First is the game-changing Ahmed Qasem, who has 0.2 xAG in 47 minutes of play. Last year, the top attackers in the league averaged around 0.4 xAG per 90. If Qasem can maintain a pace anywhere near what he’s currently on, he’ll be a dynamic asset for a struggling NSC attack.

Another reinforcement on the way is Jacob Shaffelburg, who ranked 38th last year among non-defenders in xAG per 90 minutes played.

Gold Star of the Match: Patrick Yazbek

After a tough team performance like that, it’s hard to select an outstanding player, but I think Yazbek has been quietly very impressive for Nashville since he arrived last summer.

It seems like fans have forgotten that he’s only 22, which is understandable; he’s the longest-tenured midfielder on Nashville's roster, making him feel like an experienced player on the field. I think he’s flashed a very high ceiling and hasn’t received the recognition he deserves.

Once he was subbed in and Tagseth partnered him centrally, the game completely shifted for Nashville. The Boys in Gold were pushing forward and probably deserved a goal toward the end. Yazbek remained calm under pressure and advanced the ball better than any NSC midfielder on the day.

Minutes played: 32
Passes completed: 38/40 (95%)
Passes into the final third: 4
Progressive passes: 2
Passes completed over 15 yards: 18/19 (95%)

That’s an incredible stat line, especially against a dogged press. It’s still a tiny sample size, but only 14 players last season who played over 200 minutes completed 90% of their medium passes and 80% of their long-range passes, including Diego Chara, Pavel Bucha, Darlington Nagbe, Jan Gregus, and Patrick Yazbek.

Getting him on the field more consistently will solve many of Nashville's issues.

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